ADB: Climate change will negatively influence Azerbaijan’s agricultural sector 

Agriculture is an important sector of the Azerbaijan economy, with approximately 58% of land area used for farming and over 36.4% of employment taking place in this sector, Report informs, citing Climate Risk Country Profiles published jointly by ADB and the World Bank Group.

According to the document, productivity in agriculture, however, is below the national average, so that the sector only accounted for 5.0% of GDP on average from 2013 to 2017: “Climate change in Azerbaijan is expected to influence food production via direct and indirect effects on crop growth processes. Direct effects include alterations to carbon dioxide availability, precipitation, and temperatures. Indirect effects include impacts on water resource availability and seasonality, soil organic matter transformation, soil erosion, changes in pest profiles and the arrival of invasive species, and decline in arable areas due to land degradation and desertification. On an international level, these impacts are expected to damage key staple crop yields, even on lower emissions pathways.”

“As the projected effects of climate change are realized over the coming decades, greater variability in precipitation, increased probability of drought, and increased temperatures are likely to impact the agricultural sector negatively. The increase in the frequency of extreme temperatures over 35°C is a particular threat, likely damaging crop yields. In many cases, increased temperatures will also increase crop water demand. One study suggested a potential demand increase of 16% by the 2030s in eastern Azerbaijan. In combination with glacial melting, transboundary competition for water resources, and unpredictable rainfall patterns, there is potential for significant stress on irrigation systems. The 30% of agricultural land area that is irrigated produces over 80% of all agricultural output. Greater variability in precipitation, increased probability of drought, and increased temperatures are likely to exacerbate regional and sectoral inequality in Azerbaijan, having a disproportionately severe effect on rain-fed agriculture. The cotton subsector, which has suffered from low productivity in recent decades, is expected to benefit from higher temperatures and a longer growing season, although this benefit may be offset by water shortages that are likely to affect irrigation of cotton fields. Subject to securing enough water for irrigation, cotton productivity is expected to rise by 4–5% by the latter decades of the 21st century. Rising temperatures are projected to lead to significant changes in the altitudes at which winter wheat and vineyards may be planted in Azerbaijan by the end of the 21st century. In practice, this will mean that vineyards, which are currently most productive at altitudes of 800–900 m, will become productive at much higher altitudes of 1,400–1,700 m, whereas winter wheat production will become viable above its current range of 1,600–1,800 m. There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate change on summer and winter pasture growth in Azerbaijan. Productivity in this subsector is positively related to soil moisture levels, which may be positively or negatively affected depending on precipitation levels in the coming decades. The increased probability of drought that the model ensemble projects will lead to greater volatility of production in this subsector,” the document said.

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