Was Baku really Max Verstappen’s best chance to win in F1 2026?

When Max Verstappen walked into the Red Bull hospitality on Friday for his Dutch Formula 1 media session – which in Azerbaijan, incidentally, consisted of just two Dutch journalists – the message was clear. The Baku City Circuit offered Red Bull its best opportunity to win a race this year, but Verstappen added: “We’ve done a great job messing it up.”

A day later, he still came remarkably close to victory. Admittedly, he felt the gap of just 0.196 seconds at the finish line was somewhat misleading due to Valtteri Bottas’ crash and George Russell’s boost issue, but Red Bull’s race pace was undeniably good – particularly on the softs.

That was not only down to the impressive top speed on the longest straight of the F1 calendar, but also to the upgrades Red Bull introduced in Baku. It was the final significant package for the RB22 and, according to both drivers, the upgrade – which included a new floor and revised sidepods – delivered what had been hoped for.

Besides outright performance, the upgrade also made both drivers more comfortable in the car, at least on the Baku layout.

“Baku is a very specific track, with specific tarmac, but the way the car was behaving in terms of through-corner balance this weekend, from lap one in FP1, I was like, ‘Okay, this is looking pretty good’,” Isack Hadjar said.

“Then the second half of the car [the power unit], we’re definitely lacking compared to Mercedes. But in terms of handling on the brakes, the car was definitely a step better than in Budapest,” Hadjar said, referring to the last race before his wrist injury. “So, yeah, I’m really pleased with that [feeling in the car].”

Verstappen shared that view and felt the confidence to attack the corners that is so important at a track like Baku. “Yeah, I mean, it’s a unique track. It has mainly 90-degree corners, but it probably felt a little bit more together balance-wise,” the Dutchman said.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

“But like I said, we have other issues in the car that we really need to fix because there is just free lap time in that. That’s what we are working on. But the performance items, they worked well and we’ve been fairly happy all weekend with what I had from the car.”

By the problems costing ‘free’ lap time, Verstappen is referring to the ‘car degradation’ issues and the deployment on the electrical side of the power unit, which is not optimal compared with Mercedes.

Despite the upgrades from the technical team led by Pierre Wache working well, Verstappen maintains that the Baku race weekend was Red Bull’s best chance of victory in 2026.

That is not only because of the layout, but also because Mercedes will have its long-awaited upgrade package for the W17 in Malaysia – with an ADUO upgrade for the power unit in the pipeline as well.

“If they’re bringing an upgrade to Malaysia, then it’s going to look a little bit more difficult for us,” the four-time world champion said.

“If Mercedes is bringing an upgrade and it works, then they’ll take another step ahead, and that’s not what you want. It will make it even more difficult to win, but we’ll try every single weekend and, of course, if the opportunity is there, we go for it.”

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Isack Hadjar, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Alex Pantling / LAT Images via Getty Images

When Motorsport.com asked Mekies whether he sees it the same way, or whether the race pace in Baku instead gives him confidence that there will be more opportunities, the team principal responds:

“I think both statements are correct. I think it’s fair what Max is saying in terms of assessing this track as, on paper, the one that was favouring us the most. So I think that is correct, it has probably been the most favourable track for us in terms of car characteristics.

“Equally I think that the performance we’ve shown in the race is giving us decent hope that we will get another couple of occasions before the end of the year.”

Moreover, Mekies stresses that the remaining race weekends this year are not only about securing that much-coveted victory. At least as important is for Red Bull to learn for 2027, ideally allowing it to produce a car that can consistently fight at the front next season.

Verstappen has already said several times that certain bigger changes are no longer possible in 2026, but that they are necessary to mount a championship challenge next year. Mekies acknowledges that and says the remaining race weekends are important in that respect as well.

“On top of getting a couple of other occasions to get that first win, it’s also good to go to tracks where it’s going to be more difficult for us, because that is exactly what we need to be confronted with to continue to progress,” he said.

Nevertheless, a year without a victory would be remarkable, as it would be the first time since 2015 for both Verstappen and Red Bull.

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– The Motorsport.com Team