Data from analysts indicates a sharp slowdown in activity, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
According to Goldman Sachs, real estate transaction volumes in the UAE dropped 37% year-on-year in the first 12 days of March and 49% compared to the previous month. The total value of completed deals has also fallen significantly, down by about half from February levels.
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Some properties are already being offered at notable discounts. Real estate agents report price reductions of around 12–15%, with examples including a property near the Burj Khalifa listed for $650,000—down from $735,000—and an off-plan apartment on Palm Jumeirah offered at roughly $2 million, about 15% below its original price.
The conflict and Iran’s strikes on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states—including the UAE—have dented Dubai’s reputation as a safe haven for wealthy investors. The market, which has experienced strong growth over the past five years, was already expected to slow, but the war is now seen as a major stress test.
Shares of property developers have also been hit. Emaar Properties, the developer behind the Burj Khalifa, has fallen more than 26% on the Dubai stock exchange since the conflict began.
Despite the downturn in activity, price declines remain relatively modest so far, with median transaction prices down only about 3% year-on-year. However, analysts at Citi warn that the conflict introduces significant risks to future population growth and investor demand, projecting weaker growth in the coming years. In a bearish scenario, property prices could fall by an average of 7% annually through 2028.
Still, industry figures say the market has not stalled entirely. Some investors are actively seeking discounted opportunities, while high-end transactions continue, including the reported sale of a luxury Palm Jumeirah unit to former UFC champion Francis Ngannou.
Market participants remain divided, with some emphasizing continued demand for premium properties and others pointing to growing uncertainty as geopolitical tensions weigh on investor sentiment.
