Bernstein now forecasts gold reaching $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and climbing to $6,100 by 2030, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
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The update reflects a new analytical framework centered on net demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the expected impact of U.S. rate cuts.
“Recently, gold demand has been primarily driven by central bank purchase and ETF flows,” Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett said in a note.
Central bank purchases, while moderating in 2025, are still well above pre-2022 levels. Survey data also points to continued accumulation, with 95% of central banks expecting global gold reserves to increase over the next year and 73% anticipating a reduced share of U.S. dollar reserves over five years.
ETF flows, meanwhile, are seen as the “swing” factor in institutional demand. Brackett highlighted that holdings have risen strongly since mid-2024 and that ETFs can act as a pro-cyclical force, amplifying price moves when inflows accelerate.
The macro backdrop also supports the firm’s bullish forecast. The market expects two to three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, “which would be supportive of gold prices,” the analyst said.
The bullion has risen an average 6.53% twelve months after rate cuts, he noted. “We can apply this estimate to the number of potential rate cuts. With the market currently pricing in at least two cuts in 2026, this implies a potential total return of around 13%,” Brackett wrote.
Looking longer term, the analyst argues structural forces such as reserve diversification and the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit reinforce the bull case.
On the flip side, he flagged potential risks, including a potential deceleration in central bank buying and higher real rates, both of which could pressure ETF flows and gold prices.
Alongside updated gold price forecasts, Bernstein also upgraded Newmont Goldcorp (NYSE:NEM) to Outperform with a $157 price target, citing a 26% increase in its EBITDA forecast to $21.9 billion driven by a more bullish gold outlook.
