Stifel analyst Ruben Roy told investors in a preview note that his expectations for the fiscal fourth quarter are quite consistent with his view three months ago, noting the company is still navigating “a well-understood demand acceleration story against longer-term concerns on the sustainability of AI infrastructure spend,” , News.Az reports, citing CNBC.
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He added that Stifel remains bullish, arguing Nvidia is “still in the early innings of what we expect to be a long-tailed investment cycle for AI infrastructure.”
Roy said conversations with management at CES and higher hyperscaler capital-expenditure outlooks for 2026 suggest estimates are “likely moving higher post the 4Q report.”
Meanwhile, KeyBanc’s John Vinh forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $69 billion and first-quarter guidance of $74 billion to $75 billion, citing tailwinds from the ramp-up of Blackwell B300/GB300 shipments, which carry higher average selling prices.
He estimates China-bound H200 shipments will add $3 billion to $3.5 billion in the quarter and another $2 billion to $3 billion in the April quarter. Vinh also expects data centre revenue to rise 24% sequentially and compute revenue to climb 27%, though he warned that GDDR memory shortages could weigh on gaming.
Peter Corey, Chief Market Strategist at Pave Finance, said in comments to Investing.com that “NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings should reflect strong results and a confident outlook, with recent channel checks appearing broadly optimistic.”
“While DRAM shortages and power bottlenecks remain potential obstacles, the demand data we’re seeing doesn’t suggest those constraints are materially dampening end demand at this stage,” Corey added. “If NVIDIA delivers solid earnings and the market continues to sell off – particularly across KKR, BLK, OWL and IGV – then that divergence would be a reason to become more defensive, as it would imply the tape is trading more on risk appetite than fundamentals.”
Focusing on the stock price ahead of the results, David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, told Investing.com that Nvidia shares have been trapped between $170 and $195 for months as investors weigh questions about AI investment returns and competitive threats.
But he acknowledged that Wednesday’s update could provide a catalyst. “There is an opportunity for a breakout in the share price,” he said, noting the market will focus on data centre revenue, cloud spending and margins.
“The initial headlines will be around revenues and earnings per share, and how these match up to expectations,” he added. “In addition, Nvidia has often surprised investors with bullish forward guidance. If there’s good news here, then that should underpin the share price.”
Morrison stated that “data centre revenue, chip demand and hyperscale cloud spending are all important elements,” while competition and margins will also feature.
