DeVore said the next phase of the conflict could hinge on whether Israel resumes strikes against senior Iranian leadership figures after months of U.S.-led operations targeting the country’s military infrastructure, News.Az reports.
“And here’s the tell,” DeVore said. “When does Israel get reengaged? If Israel is reengaged, it means that leadership targets are back on the table.”
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Asked whether eliminating commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would bring the conflict to a close, DeVore said such strikes would likely signal a broader political turning point rather than an immediate end to the fighting.
“It’s the beginning of the end,” he said.
DeVore argued that Iran’s leadership is increasingly vulnerable because of what he described as widespread public dissatisfaction with the government.
“If you look at the polling that was done recently and released to the public, this Iranian regime is not popular with Iranians,” he said. “They have suppressed and tortured the Iranian people since 1979. I think that they’ve had enough.”
He said the primary uncertainty is whether opposition groups inside Iran possess the organization and resources needed to challenge the government and whether the country’s conventional military would side with civilians if unrest intensified.
“The issue is, do they have any weaponry? Do they have any organization to overthrow the military?” DeVore said. “The other interesting thing is, does the regular army, for example, intervene on behalf of the people against the IRGC and against the Basij?”
The Basij is a volunteer paramilitary force affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that has played a prominent role in suppressing anti-government protests in Iran.
While DeVore predicted that military pressure could eventually contribute to political change, he acknowledged that Iran has continued adapting its tactics during the conflict.
“What happens during warfare is that the enemy adapts,” he said. “Frequently what you’ll see is the side that adapts the most quickly will have an advantage.”
He also argued that the scale of Iranian attacks has declined compared with the early months of the conflict, attributing the reduction to U.S. operations targeting missile production facilities and supply chains.
“What you’re beginning to see is a diminution of attacks,” DeVore said.
During the interview, DeVore also addressed the political challenges facing U.S. President Donald Trump as the conflict continues, saying prolonged military engagement could erode domestic support even if the administration believes it has reduced a longer-term security threat.
“We can’t blame the American public for not being in favor of war,” he said.
He added that the administration has not received sufficient recognition for preventing what he described as the potential future threat posed by Iran’s advancing missile and nuclear capabilities.
“The president really isn’t getting credit for the disaster that didn’t happen,” DeVore said.
DeVore’s remarks reflect his personal assessment of the trajectory of the conflict and Iran’s political future. U.S. and Israeli officials have generally said their military operations are intended to counter threats posed by Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, rather than publicly declaring regime change as an official objective.
