One of the clearest examples came in Falam, a strategic town in Chin State near the Indian border. Rebel fighters withdrew in April after a six-month military offensive, saying they had run out of ammunition, Al Jazeera reported.
The Myanmar military had used hundreds of air strikes and deployed roughly 1,000 troops in its campaign to retake the town, which had remained under opposition control for about a year.
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Falam’s capture was strategically important. The town is home to Chin State’s only airport and sits along a trade route connecting Myanmar with India.
Within weeks, three more towns in Chin State had fallen. By late May, the military said it had regained control of the entire northern part of the state.
“Falam taught us an important lesson,” Salai William Chin, a member of the rebel Chin Brotherhood, told Al Jazeera.
He said capturing a town was very different from maintaining control of it, requiring manpower, supplies, administration and the ability to protect civilians while withstanding repeated attacks, particularly from the air.
Despite the setbacks, he said resistance forces would continue fighting and could increasingly rely on mobile warfare rather than trying to permanently hold every town.
The developments in Chin are part of a wider reversal in Myanmar’s five-year conflict.
The opposition, made up of People’s Defence Forces and ethnic armed organisations, made major gains in 2023 and 2024, capturing dozens of towns in coordinated offensives against the military.
Those advances have since slowed, with resistance forces increasingly withdrawing from urban areas they previously seized.
Several factors appear to be behind the military’s resurgence, including a mass conscription campaign that has brought tens of thousands of new recruits into its ranks, a sustained air campaign and China’s growing influence over some powerful ethnic armed groups.
According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, more than 100,000 people have been killed in the conflict. The United Nations estimates that about 3.9 million people have been displaced, while roughly one in three people in Myanmar requires humanitarian assistance.
The military seized power in February 2021 after overthrowing the elected government and launching a brutal crackdown on protesters. The violence prompted many young people to take up arms and join newly formed resistance groups, while established ethnic armed organisations provided support in several border regions.
Myanmar’s military has now expanded operations in Chin, Kachin, Kayin and Rakhine states.
The independent think tank ISP-Myanmar estimates that the military has retaken 22 of the 101 towns it lost after the 2021 coup. Although those towns represent only about 9 percent of the territory previously lost, many are strategically important, including areas along trade routes connecting Myanmar’s borderlands with the country’s central regions.
Analysts say the territorial gains have disrupted the economic and logistical networks of several resistance groups and made it harder for them to coordinate large-scale offensives.
Instead, opposition forces are increasingly being pushed towards defensive and guerrilla-style warfare.
However, analysts caution that the military’s gains do not necessarily signal an end to the conflict.
Su Mon, an analyst at ACLED, said the military was unlikely to achieve an “existential or politically decisive” victory over the opposition, warning that Myanmar could face a prolonged war of attrition.
The military has nevertheless portrayed its recent battlefield successes as evidence of a turning point.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 coup, said during a visit to Bangkok this month that Myanmar was moving towards democracy and a better future. State media has also published images of troops returning from military operations.
Security analyst Anthony Davis said conscription and Chinese support had played a major role in strengthening the military.
He estimated that nearly 150,000 troops had been added to its combat forces through conscription since 2024. Although many recruits received limited training, their growing numbers have allowed the military to sustain offensives and replenish its ranks.
China has also played an increasingly influential role. Beijing has pressured powerful armed groups, including the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, to withdraw from fighting. That has allowed the military to redeploy forces to other fronts.
China has also pressured the United Wa State Army, one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed organisations, to stop supplying weapons to resistance groups, contributing to ammunition shortages among opposition forces, according to Davis.
Airpower remains another critical advantage for the military.
Davis said the military’s control of the skies has allowed it to resupply troops and strike opposition positions with relatively little interference. The growing use of drones for surveillance and attacks, combined with better coordination between military units, has further strengthened its battlefield capabilities.
The consequences for civilians have been devastating.
The Myanmar Internet Project recorded 520 air strikes between April and June across 87 townships, killing at least 314 civilians, including 41 children.
Chin State suffered the highest number of reported strikes, with 122, followed by Sagaing with 101 and Rakhine with 98.
Phil Robertson, director of Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, said the resistance’s inability to counter the military’s air superiority had weakened opposition forces.
Air attacks, he said, have not only demoralised resistance fighters but also forced civilians who supported them to flee their homes.
Despite the military’s territorial gains, opposition activists and commanders insist the resistance has not been defeated.
Thinzar Shunlei Yi, an activist living in exile, said opposition networks were continuing to train organisers and build support for the movement despite the violence.
In Chin State, Salai William Chin also rejected the idea that military airpower had permanently determined the outcome of the war.
He acknowledged that air strikes remained a major challenge but said resistance groups were adapting their tactics.
For now, Myanmar’s conflict appears to be entering a new phase: the military is recovering territory it once lost, but the opposition remains capable of continuing the fight, setting the stage for a potentially prolonged struggle rather than a decisive military victory.
