Shares in the chip giant rose 1.6% in early New York trade, News.Az reports, citing CNBC.
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Stifel analyst Ruben Roy told investors in a preview note that his expectations for the fiscal fourth quarter are quite consistent with his view three months ago, noting the company is still navigating “a well-understood demand acceleration story against longer-term concerns on the sustainability of AI infrastructure spend.”
He added that Stifel remains bullish, arguing Nvidia is “still in the early innings of what we expect to be a long-tailed investment cycle for AI infrastructure.”
Roy said conversations with management at CES and higher hyperscaler capital-expenditure outlooks for 2026 suggest estimates are “likely moving higher post the 4Q report.”
Meanwhile, KeyBanc’s John Vinh forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $69 billion and first-quarter guidance of $74 billion to $75 billion, citing tailwinds from the ramp-up of Blackwell B300/GB300 shipments, which carry higher average selling prices.
He estimates China-bound H200 shipments will add $3 billion to $3.5 billion in the quarter and another $2 billion to $3 billion in the April quarter. Vinh also expects data centre revenue to rise 24% sequentially and compute revenue to climb 27%, though he warned that GDDR memory shortages could weigh on gaming.
Peter Corey, Chief Market Strategist at Pave Finance, said in comments to Investing.com that “NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings should reflect strong results and a confident outlook, with recent channel checks appearing broadly optimistic.”
“While DRAM shortages and power bottlenecks remain potential obstacles, the demand data we’re seeing doesn’t suggest those constraints are materially dampening end demand at this stage,” Corey added. “If NVIDIA delivers solid earnings and the market continues to sell off – particularly across KKR, BLK, OWL and IGV – then that divergence would be a reason to become more defensive, as it would imply the tape is trading more on risk appetite than fundamentals.”
Northwestern Mutual’s Chief Portfolio Manager, Matt Stucky, stated: “Despite hotter than expected capex in the 4Q from the hyperscalers, revenue estimates for NVDA’s 4Q have been mostly flat the last few months with consensus at 65.8B for Q4 (guided to 65.0 at midpoint) and expecting a guide of 72.6B for Q1 FY27.”
“NVDA should be able to deliver the usual 2-3B of upside driven by unit growth in rack scale Blackwell systems and mix shift towards Blackwell Ultra which carries 20-30% higher pricing versus GB200,” he added. “This dynamic should continue into Q1 where NVDA should be able to guide to at least $74B of revenue driven by continued growth in hyperscaler capex and GB300 system growth.”
Stucky also noted that when it comes to commentary on sustained supending into 2027, “NVDA is trading 21x where we think earnings could ultimately land in FY 27 (CY 26) ~9/sh. That implies some form of a cyclical peak in spending, which isn’t the message hyperscalers are giving.”
Focusing on the stock price ahead of the results, David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, told Investing.com that Nvidia shares have been trapped between $170 and $195 for months as investors weigh questions about AI investment returns and competitive threats.
But he acknowledged that Wednesday’s update could provide a catalyst. “There is an opportunity for a breakout in the share price,” he said, noting the market will focus on data centre revenue, cloud spending and margins.
“The initial headlines will be around revenues and earnings per share, and how these match up to expectations,” he added. “In addition, Nvidia has often surprised investors with bullish forward guidance. If there’s good news here, then that should underpin the share price.”
Morrison stated that “data centre revenue, chip demand and hyperscale cloud spending are all important elements,” while competition and margins will also feature.
He concluded: “There’s a lot at play here for the world’s largest company by market capitalisation. There was a time when Nvidia’s stock seemed to only go higher. That’s less of a certainty now. But however it goes, Nvidia’s results will have important implications for the broader market.”
