According to a high-level briefing by Jefferies, featuring former intelligence and diplomatic officials, the month-long crisis has reached a pivotal stage. While Iran’s military capabilities have been degraded, experts say they remain sufficient to sustain disruption, leaving the trajectory of the conflict highly dependent on decisions from Washington, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
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Narrow prospects for de-escalation
Analysts suggest that any path toward de-escalation is likely to be limited in scope. Donald Trump has indicated openness to negotiations, but expectations for a comprehensive agreement remain low.
Instead, attention is shifting toward the possibility of a narrower arrangement focused on stabilising maritime trade routes. Securing the safe passage of shipping through strategic corridors is seen as the most realistic short-term objective for diplomatic efforts.
However, experts warn that if progress is not achieved within the current timeframe, the likelihood of escalation will increase significantly, potentially drawing in additional regional infrastructure and expanding the conflict’s geographic scope.
Markets focused on leadership signals
Financial markets are closely monitoring signals from the United States, which is widely viewed as the key actor in preventing a wider breakdown in regional stability. Analysts note that Iran’s leadership is under mounting internal pressure, creating uncertainty over whether it will pursue restraint or respond with further escalation.
This uncertainty has contributed to a sustained risk premium across global energy markets, particularly as traders assess the balance between a controlled de-escalation and the possibility of a more destructive confrontation.
Strategic risks remain elevated
Attention is now turning to an approaching deadline linked to potential strikes on Iranian power infrastructure, expected in early April. The focus is increasingly on the resilience of regional defence systems and the potential for retaliatory actions.
Despite reported damage to several strategic assets, Iran retains the capacity to disrupt global shipping lanes and target energy infrastructure across the Gulf, a factor that continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
The baseline outlook among market participants remains one of heightened volatility. The US dollar is expected to remain a preferred safe-haven asset as long as escalation risks persist in the region.
As the situation evolves, the coming days are likely to prove decisive in shaping not only the trajectory of the conflict but also its wider economic consequences.
