Reform still leads nationally in recent polls
While Andy Burnham secured a Labour victory in Makerfield, Reform UK has been topping national opinion polls for over a year.
Reform has an average of around 27% support in polls conducted in the two weeks up to 18 June, which is down from its peak last autumn but still ahead of everyone else, News.Az reports, citing BBC.
Labour is currently vying with the Conservatives for second place, with both parties on an average of about 19%.
The Greens and the Liberal Democrats are on an average of 13% and 12% respectively.
The SNP are on 3% and Plaid Cymru are on 1% with their vote share measured across the whole of Great Britain, but they only stand in Scotland and Wales respectively.
While Restore Britain came third in Makerfield, we don’t have an average of their support as only a few polling companies currently produce a figure for them. For example, YouGov, external’s latest poll has Restore on about 4% and Survation’s latest , externalsuggests around 2% of people would back them, while some pollsters place them in categories such as “Other”.
All figures are what’s known as “headline” voting intention which is where pollsters have either removed or adjusted for people who were undecided or didn’t intend to vote.
**15:57
Manchester mayoral election set for 30 July.
As expected, the election for the new mayor of Greater Manchester will take place on 30 July, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority announces.
A contest was automatically triggered by Andy Burnham’s victory in Makerfield overnight, News.Az reports, citing BBC.
The mayor of Greater Manchester is also the Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) for the region – a role you cannot hold alongside being an MP.
**15:20
Burnham describes his victory in Makerfield as the “last chance to change” the Labour Party.
“We are going to take it,” he says, News.Az reports, citing BBC.
He adds last night’s vote carried a “risk” of seeing Britain going further down the path of “greater division”, comparing it to the US.
“We will bring people back together,” he says. “I will be a MP for everybody however they voted.”
He stresses that he wants to change politics to “make it work again” and help people see it can bring a “positive difference”.
He says last night’s result “opened up the possibility we can now move forward together towards that future”, and says he will set out a “new path for Britain”.
**12:40
UK Parliamentary by-election for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Constituency Result:
Tanvir Ahmad, Scottish Liberal Democrats – 1452 votes
Lara Bird, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 9802 votes – ELECTED
Jack Cruickshanks, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party – 4524 votes
Heather Doran, Scottish Labour Party – 3651 votes
Bill Reid, Reform UK – 4341 votes
Total votes – 23,827
Turn out – 31.36%
Spoilt/rejected papers – 57
**11:33
The Makerfield by-election by numbers
More than 45,500 votes were cast in the Makerfield by-election
That equates to 58.8% of the constituency. It’s the first time since 1982 that a by-election turnout was greater than that of the previous general election (52.5% in 2024)
Andy Burnham secured 24,927 votes – 55% overall – and increased Labour’s vote share by 10 percentage points
15,696 votes – or 35% – went to Reform UK, bumping the party’s vote share by three percentage pointsNewcomers Restore Britain received 3,111 votes – or 7%
997 votes went to the Conservatives, 308 to the Greens and 163 to the Lib Dems
**09:53
Lara Bird won the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry seat on Scotland’s east coast for the SNP, securing a majority of over 5,000 votes ahead of the Conservatives.
Bird, from near Kirriemuir, is a qualified lawyer who has worked as an SNP researcher and adviser at Westminster, News.Az reports, citing BBC.
She said voters had “rejected the politics of division and hate” and made it clear that Scotland’s future “lies with independence”.
Labour slipped from second to fourth in the constituency, with Reform in third.
Credit: PA Media
**09:36
Keir Starmer congratulated Andy Burnham on X.
“Congratulations, @AndyBurnhamGM, Labour’s new MP for Makerfield,” he writes on X.
“Voters chose Labour’s campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate.”
**09:27
Douglas Lumsden secured a decisive victory in Aberdeen South for the Scottish Conservatives, defeating the Scottish National Party, while Reform UK finished third and Labour dropped to fourth place.
In his victory speech, Lumsden told his supporters: “The destruction of the North Sea oil and gas industry must stop now,” News.Az reports, citing BBC.
The seat had been held by the SNP’s Stephen Flynn since 2019 but has shifted over the years, with a Tory MP in 2017, SNP in 2015, and Labour’s Anne Begg between 1997-2015.
Lumsden is to resign as North East MSP now that he has been elected for Aberdeen South because there is a Holyrood ban on dual mandates.
The contest was held after Flynn had to give up being an MP following his election as an MSP in May.
His SNP colleague Stephen Gethins who was also elected to Holyrood in May had to give up his Arbroath and Broughty Ferry seat at Westminster.
**08:55
Andy Burnham is the new MP for Makerfield
Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election, removing a significant obstacle to a likely bid for the Labour leadership, News.Az reports, citing BBC.
He won 55% of the vote – that’s 9,000 more votes than Reform’s Robert Kenyon. Burnham is no longer the Greater Manchester mayor – an election to replace him is expected to take place on 30 July.
He believes he is the change the Labour Party needs (if we read between the lines)
When Burnham told Labour Party members it was the “final chance to change”, read between the lines – he was saying he could be the change the party needs, political correspondent Alex Forsyth writes.
So will Burnham be the next prime minister?
That’s something we definitely don’t know. Both Burnham and former health secretary Wes Streeting have said they would stand in any contest to replace the PM, and Streeting has suggested he would be prepared to trigger a leadership contest to replace him as early as next week.
But as of yet, no challenge to Starmer has been made. Contenders would need the support of at least 81 Labour MPs.
**22:39
Vote counting in the by-election will begin after the polls close at 10 p.m. on Thursday.
The results from the Makerfield by-election are then expected from 4am on Friday, June 19, News.Az reports, citing Manchester Evening News.
**18:58
Voters are going to the polls for two by-elections on Scotland’s east coast.
The contests in Aberdeen South and the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency were triggered following the election of local SNP MPs Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins to Holyrood last month, News.Az reports, citing BBC.
The votes coincide with the Makerfield by-election in Greater Manchester.
Polls are open from 07:00 to 22:00 with results expected to be announced in the early hours of Friday.
Flynn and Gethins, who won Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry respectively for the SNP at the 2024 general election, had to resign their seats to take up a place at Holyrood.
**16:50
So how quickly could Andy Burnham replace Keir Starmer, if Burnham wins Thursday’s Makerfield byelection? Actually, quite quickly, but only if events go in a particular way. And there are plenty of alternate outcomes.
The Labour party rulebook sets out that if an MP wants to challenge a sitting party leader, they must first be nominated by at least 20% of the parliamentary party (currently 81 MPs), as well as by at least 5% of all local branches or at least three party-affiliated groups, of which a minimum of two must be unions, News.Az reports, citing The Guardian.
Credit: Victoria Jones/Shutterstock
Any contenders who meet the threshold go forward to a vote of party members, assuming there is more than one challenger.
It also says that if a sitting leader is challenged, they do not need to meet these requirements and are automatically in the members’ vote – if they choose to do so.
There is a scenario in which Burnham is elected as Makerfield’s MP, Starmer decides he will step down immediately – perhaps after a mass of senior cabinet ministers tell him they will resign if he does not – and no other challengers come forward.
**14:46
The northern English area of Makerfield votes on Thursday in a local election that could return Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to parliament, paving the way for him to launch a bid to take over as prime minister.
The election, triggered by a party colleague resigning his seat, has brought unusual attention to the former coal mining area near Manchester as its result will determine the shape of an inevitable challenge to the deeply unpopular Keir Starmer, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
***
If Burnham defeats the candidate for Reform UK, Brexit advocate Nigel Farage’s populist party, his victory will fire the starting gun on a race to replace Starmer as leader of the Labour Party, a contest that could give Britain its seventh prime minister in just over a decade. Starmer himself has pledged to fight on.
Burnham, 56, made two unsuccessful bids to become Labour leader, in 2010 and 2015. He has mostly tried to play down his leadership ambitions by casting the by-election as a fight to improve the life chances of people in the area, close to where he now lives and where his three children went to school.
**10:46
Labour veteran and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is aiming to win a parliamentary by-election as a step toward potentially challenging Keir Starmer for the prime ministership.
Pollsters expect Burnham to win the historic contest to represent the Makerfield constituency in northwest England, but he faces a tough fight from the hard-right Reform UK party, News.Az reports, citing TRT World.
“Almost undoubtedly it’s in the hands of the voters of Makerfield as to whether or not Burnham becomes prime minister,” political scientist John Curtice said.
“If Burnham does win, his path to 10 Downing Street looks to be relatively assured. If they deny him the opportunity, it may be that Starmer will survive, at least for the time being,” he told AFP.
Starmer, in power since July 2024, has been clinging to power by his fingernails since Labour suffered a drubbing in local and regional elections last month.
He has been rocked by several policy U-turns and a scandal over his appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to Washington.
The 63-year-old prime minister has endured several ministerial resignations and rock-bottom personal poll ratings, with Reform leading national surveys for over a year.
But Starmer, an ex-lawyer who has refused to quit, insists his landslide election victory over the Conservatives 21 months ago gives him a five-year mandate to govern.
**10:10
More than 30 polling stations across the parliamentary constituency will open at 07:00 BST and close at 22:00, after which the count will take place. The result is expected early on Friday, News.Az reports, citing the BBC.
There are 14 candidates standing in the by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons.
It is one of three Westminster by-elections taking place, with voters in the Scottish constituencies of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South also heading to the polls after their MPs stood down to take up posts as MSPs following May’s Holyrood elections.
**09:40
Voters in Britain are casting ballots on Thursday in three closely watched parliamentary by-elections that may serve as a key test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government.
Voting is underway in three UK constituencies — Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry — with polling stations open from 7 a.m. until 10 p.m. local time. The results are expected shortly after polls close, with the outcome in Makerfield likely coming in during the early hours of Friday, News.Az reports.
***
The contest in Makerfield is attracting the most attention, particularly because Labour candidate Andy Burnham is standing there. His potential return to Westminster has sparked national interest, as he is often viewed as a possible future challenger to Labour leader Keir Starmer.
The by-election is also being seen as a test of support for Reform UK in areas traditionally dominated by Labour. Although Labour held the seat in the 2024 general election, Reform UK finished second, making the result politically significant.
In Scotland, attention is focused on Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, both previously held by the Scottish National Party. In Aberdeen South, key campaign issues have included North Sea oil and gas, employment, energy policy, and the SNP’s recent political difficulties.
Overall, the three contests are taking place at a challenging time for the Labour government, with pressure over the cost of living, public services, migration, and the party’s direction. A weak result could intensify internal tensions, while strong performances by Reform UK would increase pressure on both Labour and the Conservatives.
