Speaking to Germany’s Bild newspaper on Saturday, Stubb described such predictions as speculative and said he had seen no evidence supporting them, Anadolu Agency reported.
“I simply see neither evidence nor facts for that,” Stubb said, arguing that Russia would have little reason to attack what he described as the world’s most powerful military alliance.
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Stubb stressed that his assessment should not be interpreted as a call for NATO countries to lower their defenses. Instead, he said allies should continue preparing for the worst in order to prevent a potential conflict.
His assessment is based on two main factors: intelligence and NATO’s military deterrence.
According to Stubb, NATO’s deterrence capabilities, including conventional forces, missiles and nuclear weapons, are powerful enough to make any attempt to test the alliance’s resolve extremely risky.
“It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance,” he said.
The Finnish president also expressed skepticism about the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He said China had signaled that it would not allow such a scenario to occur, describing Beijing’s position as another potential source of deterrence.
Stubb also warned that Russia’s information and hybrid warfare could be designed to increase anxiety across Europe by encouraging constant debate over possible escalation, nuclear weapons and a potential attack on NATO.
In his view, Russia’s room for major escalation is more limited than some European assessments suggest. He said one of the main options available to Moscow would be another military mobilization, which could create political difficulties domestically.
At the same time, Stubb emphasized the importance of keeping diplomatic channels open as the war in Ukraine continues.
He welcomed CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent visit to Moscow and argued that communication between the United States and Russia should continue.
“I believe there must be dialogue,” Stubb said.
He also suggested that European countries should eventually resume political contact with the Kremlin despite Russia’s hybrid attacks.
According to Stubb, maintaining communication could help prevent misunderstandings and incorrect assumptions in Moscow about Europe’s intentions.
His concern is that a lack of political dialogue could allow “illusions” to develop in Russia about new threats emerging in Europe, potentially increasing the risk of miscalculation.
While Stubb remains confident that Russia is unlikely to attack NATO, he stressed that continued military preparedness and deterrence remain essential to preventing such a conflict from becoming a reality.
