Memorandum signed – what comes next?​

For the first time in diplomatic history, a memorandum of understanding between states has effectively been signed virtually, without the leaders meeting face to face. This raises an interesting question: how will relations between the parties develop under such unusual circumstances?

Despite this diplomatic paradox, U.S. President Donald Trump signed agreement. A photograph of the signed document was then sent to Iran, where President Masoud Pezeshkian approved it on behalf of Tehran. As soon as news of the signing emerged, oil prices fell sharply. Brent crude dropped below $79 per barrel, while WTI slipped under $75. This outcome was precisely what the current US administration needed to strengthen its domestic political position ahead of the upcoming midterm congressional elections.

President Trump cannot afford a Democratic victory. It is crucial for him to avoid becoming a “lame duck” during the remaining two years of his presidency. This political reality appears to have played a decisive role in securing the ceasefire.

According to BBC correspondent Bernd Debusmann Jr., US officials who briefed journalists on the memorandum emphasised that the document does not legally bind Washington. Its implementation, they stressed, will depend on Iran’s future conduct. Nevertheless, the Strait of Hormuz is now open, and petrol prices at American filling stations are expected to fall.

It is anticipated that US Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf will soon discuss the launch of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Let us now examine the agreement itself.

Clause 1: Immediate ceasefire

The first clause states that the United States, Iran and their respective allies will announce an “immediate and final” cessation of military operations “on all fronts”, including Lebanon.

However, Israel did not sign the memorandum and is therefore not legally obliged to comply with its provisions. This is precisely why President Trump has expressed concern that Israeli military operations against Hezbollah could jeopardise the agreement with Iran.

Particular attention should be paid to this issue.

The document further states that, from this moment onwards, neither side will initiate military operations or threaten the other. Both parties also commit to respecting Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty

Clause 2: Non-interference in internal affairs

This clause provides that the United States and Iran will respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other’s domestic affairs.

Many Iranian dissidents are likely to view this provision negatively.

Earlier this year, during anti-government demonstrations that swept across Iranian cities, Trump promised protesters that “help is on its way”. Whether such support materialises in the future will largely depend on the resilience of the Iranian regime, which has already undergone significant transformation.

Clause 3: A 60-day negotiation period

The United States and Iran commit to conducting negotiations and reaching a final agreement within 60 days.

The deadline may be extended by mutual consent.

It is entirely possible that negotiations will continue beyond the US midterm elections. The 60-day countdown officially began once both leaders signed the memorandum of understanding.

Clause 4: End of the US naval blockade

Following the signing of the memorandum, the United States will begin a phased lifting of the naval blockade and remove “all restrictions and obstacles” imposed on Iranian ports.

According to the agreement and statements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry, the blockade should be fully lifted within 30 days.

During the transitional period, the number of vessels permitted to pass through Iranian ports will correspond to the volume of shipping traffic restored by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

Furthermore, within 30 days of the signing of a final agreement, the United States will withdraw its forces from Iran’s borders and adjacent regions.

In practical terms, this means US forces will return to the readiness levels and force structure that existed before hostilities began on 28 February.

In other words, the US naval fleet and air forces will remain in the region until a final settlement is reached.

Clause 5: The Strait of Hormuz

Under the memorandum, Iran will “make every effort” to establish measures ensuring the safe and unrestricted passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

This has been a key objective for Washington since the conflict began and the strait was closed, causing a dramatic rise in global oil prices.

Over the longer term, Iran will cooperate with Oman and other Gulf states to develop a broader framework governing navigation and management of the strategic waterway.

Clause 6: Funding Iran’s reconstruction

The sixth clause commits the United States and its regional partners to preparing a mutually agreed reconstruction and economic development plan for Iran worth at least $300 billion.

The final mechanism will be determined within 60 days of the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement.

All licences and approvals will be issued by the United States.

Washington, however, will not directly finance the reconstruction effort. Instead, it will oversee the financial architecture of the programme.

According to one US official, if Tehran fulfils its commitments, countries such as the United Arab Emirates could build infrastructure projects in Iran, including power plants, while the United States would provide the necessary approvals.

This would effectively allow foreign investors to finance and own infrastructure assets while operating under a framework supervised by Washington.

Trump and other US officials have emphasised that the United States will not transfer funds directly to Tehran, arguing that this fundamentally distinguishes the arrangement from the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated under President Barack Obama.

Clause 7: Lifting sanctions

The United States will terminate all economic sanctions imposed on Iran, including those linked to United Nations Security Council measures.

Source: Reuters

The timeline remains unclear.

The memorandum states that a detailed schedule will be negotiated as part of the final agreement, although both sides recognise the need to begin addressing the issue immediately.

Iran has suffered heavily under sanctions, while Washington’s campaign of economic pressure sought to isolate Tehran from the global financial system.

Clause 8: Renunciation of nuclear weapons

Iran has agreed neither to produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.

The issue of its existing stockpile of enriched uranium will be addressed during subsequent negotiations.

The memorandum states that the relevant mechanism will be agreed at a later stage, but, at a minimum, existing enriched material will be diluted under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

A senior US official described this provision as a “minimum standard” and a “major victory” for Washington.

Trump has previously stated that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons was the primary objective of Operation Epic Fury.

Clauses 9 and 10: Preserving the status quo

The next two provisions establish a temporary status quo while negotiations over uranium-related issues continue.

In practical terms, this means the United States will refrain from introducing new sanctions.

Iranian exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and related banking and logistics operations will also receive temporary protection from punitive measures.

Clause 11: Frozen assets

This provision represented one of the most significant obstacles during negotiations.

For years, Iran has demanded access to frozen assets abroad, viewing their release as a vital lifeline for its economy.

The memorandum states that the United States commits to making frozen or restricted funds available following the signing of the agreement, with procedures to be determined during negotiations.

According to White House officials, the assets will be released gradually as Iran fulfils specific obligations, such as dismantling its highly enriched uranium stockpiles.

Clauses 12–14: Monitoring and final negotiations

The final three clauses outline the implementation process.

The United States and Iran are expected to establish a mechanism for monitoring compliance with both the memorandum and any future agreement, although details remain unclear.

Once implementation begins, negotiations on a final settlement will commence.

Any such agreement would ultimately require approval by the United Nations Security Council.

Source: crisisgroup

According to President Trump, the memorandum does not contradict his broader objective of achieving complete victory over Tehran.

Indeed, Trump described the signing of the memorandum as a form of Iranian capitulation.

In an interview with Axios, he stated:

“It really is probably an unconditional surrender. That’s how I see it.”

The president added that the United States had inflicted a military defeat on Iran through the superiority of American armed forces. He also pointed to the naval blockade as evidence of Washington’s leverage.

According to Trump, the United States never came close to exhausting its military capabilities. On the contrary, he argued that Washington faces no meaningful limitations in this sphere.

Speaking about Lebanon, Trump suggested that Israel could conduct military operations there in a more restrained manner. He also proposed that efforts to counter Hezbollah could be entrusted to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

“He would like to do it. Hezbollah are his enemies. He would simply operate with great precision,” Trump said.

Whether Israel would accept a stronger Syrian role in the region remains highly doubtful, particularly given Damascus’s close relationship with Türkiye.

The coming weeks will determine whether this memorandum becomes the foundation for a historic diplomatic breakthrough or merely a temporary pause in a much broader geopolitical confrontation.