Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, said that countries hardest hit by the weather phenomenon could see their gross domestic product shrink by 1% to 2% on average as severe droughts, floods and storms damage agriculture, infrastructure and public finances, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
“Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries’ GDP by 1% to 2% on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent,” Nyong said.
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Meteorologists have warned that warming Pacific Ocean temperatures could produce one of the strongest El Niño events on record, increasing the risk of prolonged drought in some regions while bringing devastating floods and storms to others.
The African Development Bank’s latest growth forecast, released in May, projected Africa’s economy would expand by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, assuming geopolitical tensions ease. However, Nyong said those projections were made before forecasts pointed to a potential “super” El Niño.
Beyond the immediate economic damage, Nyong warned that governments could become trapped in a “climate finance trap,” forcing them to divert funding from healthcare, education and infrastructure to respond to disasters while taking on additional debt.
The AfDB estimates that African farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while rising sea temperatures and stronger storms are also expected to reduce fisheries productivity.
Nyong said Africa’s climate adaptation financing needs have risen sharply because of the looming weather threat. The continent was already estimated to require around $50 billion over the next year, but he said a powerful El Niño could push that figure to as much as $100 billion.
The bank plans to hold a high-level seminar in September to assess the impact of El Niño on its investments and explore ways to restructure projects and mobilize additional financing through international climate funds.
Nyong also warned that worsening drought, crop failures and soaring food prices could trigger large-scale migration from vulnerable countries, including Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria.
“When this El Niño comes there is going to be mass migration,” he said, adding that maize prices in some regions could double as climate shocks intensify pressure on food supplies and livelihoods.
