In its latest Big Ideas 2026 report, the firm projected that digital assets could reach a combined market capitalization of about $28 trillion by 2030, with bitcoin accounting for roughly 70% of that total. That would imply a bitcoin market cap near $16 trillion, far above its current level of about $1.53 trillion, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
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The forecast is built around several demand channels rather than a single price narrative. ARK’s base case points to institutional investment, digital gold demand, nation-state treasury adoption, corporate treasury allocation and growth in bitcoin-based financial services, including layer-2 networks, Lightning and wrapped bitcoin. The largest piece remains digital gold, where ARK raised its total addressable market estimate by 37% to $24.4 trillion after gold’s sharp gain in 2025.
ARK also trimmed one part of its thesis. The firm reduced its emerging-market safe-haven penetration assumption by 80%, citing the growing use of stablecoins in developing markets as an alternative store of value. That change makes the forecast a little more grounded than a simple everything-goes-right scenario, because it acknowledges that stablecoins may absorb some of the demand bitcoin once seemed positioned to capture on its own.
The projection still leaves bitcoin with a steep path ahead. ARK’s implied market-cap target is roughly 10 times current levels, and bitcoin would need to keep expanding beyond its role as a risk asset into a broader reserve, settlement and financial-services layer.
For now, the useful read is that the target is not guaranteed. It is that some of the most bullish institutional bitcoin models are becoming more specific about where future demand has to come from, and where competing crypto use cases may limit that growth.
