According to Syrskyi, Russian President Vladimir Putin tasked his General Staff with evaluating several offensive vectors, including a potential push from Belarusian territory to target Kyiv. However, Ukrainian leadership views a direct cross-border assault from Russia’s own Bryansk region into Chernihiv as the immediate threat, News.Az reports, citing RBC-Ukraine.
Syrskyi clarified that Moscow’s primary objective in a northern advance is tactical diversion rather than a direct march on the capital. By penetrating deeper into the Chernihiv region, Russia aims to:
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Force troop redeployments: Compel Ukraine to shift defensive forces away from active, critical frontlines.
Strain resources: Artificially widen the active theater of war.
Deplete reserves: Exhaust Ukraine’s strategic backup forces.
The Belarusian FactorWhile a secondary scenario involving an advance through Belarus remains on the table, Syrskyi expressed skepticism that Minsk would officially permit Russia to use its territory as a direct staging ground again.
Nevertheless, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently raised alarms over military infrastructure construction inside Belarus near the Ukrainian border. Satellite and intelligence reports indicate the construction of new roads and ammunition storage warehouses intended to support Russia’s military operations.
While Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has publicly maintained that he does not wish to enter the conflict against Ukraine, Kyiv remains on high alert along its entire northern border.
