The phenomenon, which could be the strongest El Niño in at least a decade, may spur punishing drought in some regions and severe storms in others, while also causing the Earth’s temperature to rise, News.Az reports, citing National Geographic.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted this week with growing confidence that El Niño could begin this spring or summer. The latest report added that there is a 25 percent chance of a “very strong” El Niño and a 50 percent chance of a “strong” El Niño, with Pacific Ocean temperatures rising to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than average.
The phenomenon—which typically occurs every two to seven years—is often characterized by chaos because it shifts global weather and introduces new extremes. Yet some scientists paradoxically view it as a chance to prepare for what’s to come.
“When we have an El Niño it influences the global atmosphere in such a way that we have a greater chance of knowing where things are going to happen,” says Emily Becker, a research professor at the University of Miami who is part of NOAA’s El Niño—Southern Oscillation forecast team. “So, it’s that added capability of seeing potential outcomes that really gives us a nice advantage.
What is El Niño and how do we know it’s coming?
The naturally recurring weather pattern has been transforming the Earth’s climate for what scientists believe to be hundreds of millions of years. It typically lasts between nine and 12 months.
The seed of this transformative phenomenon lies in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where winds usually blow from the east to the west, pushing warmer water and stormy weather away from Ecuador and Peru, toward Indonesia. When those winds weaken, the warmer water moves east, and with it, the stormy weather. Surface temperatures across that patch of ocean increase, changing the Earth’s atmospheric circulation.
Satellites track these ocean temperatures, while an array of research buoys in the middle of the sea deploy probes more than a thousand feet underwater to monitor how deeply it is warming. Warmer water underneath the surface rises over the course of several months to feed potential El Niño conditions. The larger the temperature increase, the stronger the El Niño could be.
What is a super El Niño?
A super El Niño is not a scientific term but rather a label that forecasters use for a very strong El Niño, when Pacific Ocean temperatures increase at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. They are rare; the last one occurred around 10 years ago. It was on par with other record strong events in the late 90s and early 80s.
These can have devastating effects. The most recent super El Niño from 2015 to 2016 was connected to a record-breaking hurricane season in the central North Pacific, water shortage in Puerto Rico, drought in Ethiopia, and the hottest global surface temperature on record at that time, according to NOAA.
